Insights with Impact Blog

Little Upside for Republicans Around Healthcare

success smart medical doctor working with operating room as concept

By Sarah Tower-Richardi

Healthcare is a divisive issue. And while Americans have greatly varying views of what it means for the healthcare system to get better or worse, one thing is clear – President Trump and Congressional Republicans now find themselves in a bind. Here’s why:

If the health insurance system improves over the next few years, voters are about equally likely to give credit to Republicans and Trump (33%) than to Democrats and Obama (37%), according to our most recent poll for Fox News. So there’s not necessarily a lot of political upside there for the GOP.

But if things get worse, voters are clear about who owns the mess. Nearly half (48%) would place blame on Trump or Republicans in Congress — twice as many as would blame Obama or Congressional Democrats (22%).

The blame on Republicans for a system that gets worse would come from all sides. Three-quarters of Democrats would blame Trump or the Republicans – but so would more than a fifth of Republicans. Sizable numbers of those who want a full repeal of Obamacare (23%) or a partial repeal (34%) would blame Trump or the Republicans if the system gets worse.

And as we head into election season, things are even trickier for Republicans in Congress. By a 13-point margin, Republicans are more likely to credit Trump than Congress if things improve. But if things get worse, Republican voters are more likely to blame Congressional Republicans than the president, this time by a 12-point margin.

Meanwhile, the poll also found a record-high 54% of voters have a favorable view of President Obama’s signature law – up 16 points from March of 2015.

Overall, the poll brings to light an interesting dilemma for Republicans – regardless of how the healthcare system does over the next few years, the GOP is unlikely to receive much credit for an improving system. On the other hand, they should be prepared for blowback if the system gets worse. Put another way – if the healthcare system breaks, Republicans own it. If it doesn’t…they don’t get a whole heap of credit.

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